Primary Turnout Shatters Records

Saturday, March 1, 2008

(Arlington County Democratic Committee)

The February 12 Democratic presidential primary in Virginia didn’t just break the record for primary turnouts, it shattered them, as almost twice as many Democrats cast ballots as in any previous primary.

The primary was easily won by Barack Obama with 63 percent of the vote to Hillary Clinton’s 37 percent. Fewer than 1 percent voted for John Edwards, Joe Biden, Bill Richardson and Dennis Kucinich, whose names remained on the ballot despite their withdrawals.

Obama won every one of Arlington’s 50 precincts except one; he lost Arlington Mill, on the border with Fairfax County near the Skyline complex, by five votes, 256 to 261.

Obama won all the Northern Virginia jurisdictions by substantial margins. His 63 percent margin in Arlington was second only to Alexandria’s 64 percent.

But the real story in Arlington was the turnout. A total of 44,644 Democrats voted this year as compared to the previous record of 24,372 who voted in the Democratic primary four years ago.

It was an utterly astounding turnout that produced long lines at many voting sites—lines rarely ever seen outside a general election.

The turnout also sounded like the voice of doom for the Arlington GOP, which could not even attract 10,000 voters for its presidential primary.

For the first time since 1988, both parties had serious presidential primaries in Virginia. The GOP primary this year drew 16 percent more voters than the 1988 race in which George Bush beat Bob Dole. The Democratic primary drew 172 percent more voters than in 1988 when Michael Dukakis won in Arlington over Jesse Jackson, who came in second, and Al Gore, who came in third.

Here are the turnout figures for the biggest drawing primaries, both Republican and Democratic, in Arlington:

2008 Dem Pres 44,644 Obama-Clinton
2004 Dem Pres 24,371 Kerry-Edwards
2000 Rep Pres 23,316 McCain-Bush
1996 Rep Sen. 17,031 Warner-Miller
1988 Dem Pres 16,442 Dukakis-Jackson
2004 Dem Cong 15,637 Moran-Rosenberg
2006 Dem Sen 11,966 Webb-Miller
1994 Dem Sen 10,228 Robb-Clute
2008 Rep Pres 9,493 McCain-Huckabee

The numbers are important beyond the raw statistics and the zeal among Democrats that they show. They are important because the Arlington party is now able to identify far more local residents as Democrats than ever before. Virginia, like about half the states, does not have registration by party, so the vote at primaries is the chief means of pinpointing just who is a D and who is an R.

The huge turnout now gives the Arlington party an immense base from which to draw volunteers and contributors, and a large body to rouse to get out and vote in future elections.

Sometimes members of one party vote in the other party’s primary when there is little or no contest on their own side. But that was not true this year, so there are likely to have been few crossover voters. The opposite was true in 2000, when many Democrats voted in the GOP primary to boost John McCain and stop George W. Bush, and in 1996, when many Dems helped Sen. John Warner fend off a conservative challenge.